Recently political expert Valery Solovey has begun to give more details about the future political transition in Russia. For example, not long ago he said that “Putin will announce the transition in January.”
Political scientists have been talking extensively of late about the Kremlin’s getting ready for the transition of presidential power and the fact that the authorities are doing something akin to “a casting call” for the next President. During this time they described many possible scenarios of the future transition and even managed to put every potential candidate under a magnifying glass. The only unanswered question was when the transition might begin.
Some of the experts think that, in fact, the political transition got underway earlier this year, but the majority of people cannot see its signs yet, although bitter fighting for power is taking place in the Kremlin. Others believe that the political transition will be carried out in a milder form -- President Putin will become the head of the State Council and the presidential powers will be limited.
There is also an opinion that the transition will begin in 2021. This opinion is maintained by Russian political scientist and historian Valery Solovey. He says that Vladimir Putin just cannot be a president due to “force majeure circumstances”. Valery Solovey many times repeated this phrase previously and journalists think that he hints at Putin’s health issues. And that is why in recent months the media have speculated over the President’s health intensely.
In any case, none of the scenarios described above gives an exact answer to the question of when the most discussed event, which in fact can mark a new milestone in contemporary history, will happen.
“Putin will announce the political transition in January with the resignation of [Prime Minister] Mishustin and [Central Bank Governor] Nabiullina”.
However, recently Valery Solovey has started to give more details about the transition. For example, not long ago he said that “Putin will announce the transition in January”. The expert is confident that at the same time “heads will roll”: PM Mishustin and the head of the Central Bank Nabiullina will be dismissed. According to Solovey, the Prime Minister and the head of the Central Bank will lose their posts due to the devaluation of the ruble.
Valery Solovey says that the current fall of the ruble means a weakening of the national economy. And in order to revive it an anti-crisis manager is needed. An experienced taxman and former head of Russia’s Federal Tax Service Mishustin does not befit this role.
Meanwhile, the political scientist is sure that even in the case of an official start of the political transition in Russia the Kremlin is unlikely to implement this plan. Solovey believes that in this case the Russian authorities may come across some obstacles again. He cites the political crisis in Belarus which foiled the plans to create the Union State of Russia and Belarus and also the COVID-19 pandemic that forces the Kremlin to delay the announcement on the transition.