Political scientist Ted Carpenter believes that this is possible only if the Western countries “go too far in exerting pressure on Minsk.” In this case, according to him, chances are the Russian and Belorussian Presidents will have to take measures to unite their countries into one.
Even before the meeting between Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko that took place in Sochi last month, many experts expressed apprehensions that the fate of Belarus's sovereignty might be determined at this event. In spite of the fact that the joint press conference of both Presidents on the results of these negotiations seemed superficial, and no agreements in terms of further integration on the platform of the Union State were announced there, it is likely that there might be behind-the-scenes agreements of this kind.
In other words, the experts are still discussing possible integration and even absorption of Belarus by Russia. It might be a kind of payment from Lukashenko for personal security and the opportunity to stay in power. There are a variety of opinions in this respect. Moreover, they are voiced not only by the Russian experts, but also by many Western political scientists.
For example, Ted Carpenter, an editor at the National Interest magazine and a senior fellow in security studies at the Cato Institute, has recently named the conditions under which Belarus might become part of the Russian Federation.
According to Carpenter, the viewpoint that Belarus might become a part of the Russian Federation started appearing more frequently against the background of a number of recent events, although the authorities of both countries deny this possibility. Anyway, Carpenter believes that this issue is debatable. At the same time, to his thinking, chances are Belarus will become a part of Russia only in one situation.
Carpenter believes that this situation is possible only if the Western countries “go too far in exerting pressure on Minsk.” In this case, according to him, chances are the Russian and Belorussian Presidents will have to take measures to merge their countries into one.
Carpenter even mentions Ukraine as an example. According to him, if the Western countries actively interfere in the internal affairs of Belarus under the same scenario that was implemented in Ukraine, it is highly likely that Minsk will no longer be the Belorussian capital. Chances are it will become the capital of a region or a federal district within Russia.