According to Ilya Graschenkov, a Russian political scientist, in 2021, people might observe the large-scale personnel changes affecting almost every power institution in Russia.
Experts from various sectors keep talking about the fact that Russia has been teetering on the edge of political stability in recent years. In this respect, the year of 2020 is very significant. It has brought a number of additional shock events such as the collapse of oil prices in spring and the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, a number of points of serious tensions were exposed on Russia’s domestic political scene.
One of the things coming to mind is the constitutional reform that was held in the summer. According to the majority of political scientists, in the course of it the constitutional amendment that reset Vladimir Putin's presidential terms to zero was made on the sly. Moreover, a number of experts believe that there was the reason to hold a poll on the amendments. In any case, even though Putin is allowed to run for another two presidential terms, there are stories that he might resign from the post of President redistributing power in the country in a completely new way.
There are also continuing disputes around the so-called Successor operation. As part of it the incumbent Russian President has to find an appropriate candidate to replace him. It means appointing such a reliable person that all possible doubts will vanish.
Meanwhile, the ongoing rallies in Khabarovsk and rumors about a conspiracy of elites against the very same Putin in order to seize the initiative, as a minimum, or the power in the country at most create a noticeably more alarming background for all these processes.
Against the backdrop of all these factors it would be quite reasonable to assume that the political scene in Russia might face serious turbulences.
Recently, a similar opinion has been voiced by Ilya Graschenkov, a political scientist and the head of the Center for Regional Policy Development. He said that “the fight in the Russian top echelons of power has already begun.”
In Graschenkov's opinion, resetting Vladimir Putin's presidential terms to zero is not the most important event among those that the upgraded Constitution has brought to the Russians.
“Today, the most heated time period is coming,” said Graschenkov. “During this time, the main questions are who of the current elites will be able to retain their influence, who of them will be suspended from the system and who will be unable to stay in the project of a new Russia. The battle in the highest echelons of people in power has already begun in this country. There is a battle for taking part in the project of a renewed country.”
According to Graschenkov, this situation means that the next year of 2021 might give the Russians an opportunity to observe large-scale reshuffles that will affect almost all power institutions in Russia. Graschenkov says that it concerns the Federation Council upper house of parliament, the Presidential Administration, the Security Council, the law enforcement agencies and others. Moreover, already in 2021, the full-fledged State Council might be established, in favor of which powers of authority will be partially redistributed.