“Russia has not succeeded as a state even to the greater extent than Belarus,” Janusz Bugaiski, a well-known American political scientist, wrote in his article for the American edition of The Hill. “That is why it will be the next. The fate of Belarus awaits it.”
Coups d'état and tough confrontation between the residents and the government in office aimed at overthrowing the latter and bringing the typically pro-Western opposition to power are no novelty for the former Soviet republics. In the past, Georgia, Ukraine (twice) and Armenia have evidenced this process. Apparently, at present, it is Belarus' turn. Large-scale protest actions and clashes with the forces of law and order are continuing on the streets for days on end.
Of course, against the background of alarming events that have regularly occurred to the countries neighboring Russia during the past 10-15 years, many people have the developed the misgivings that something along these lines could happen again in Russia. Moreover, there are already certain prerequisites for a social explosion in the country itself. As a rule, it precedes various “maidans” and “color revolutions.” Meanwhile, the sense of control over the situation seems to be gradually lost even among those who are really capable of controlling it.
However, in recent years, the Russian authorities have managed to show a certain commitment and determination. This fact creates an illusory sensation of protection from all kinds of civil riots. However, this is only an internal feeling that is typical for the Russians. On the other hand, some experts see the situation somewhat differently. Moreover, some of them give such strict assessments of the situation that even the most devout oppositionists would want to object.
Janusz Bugaiski, a well-known American political scientist and a representative of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, has recently distinguished himself by doing something of this kind. He called Russia “a failed country” and predicted the same problems that the Belarusian authorities are faced with at present.
According to Bugaiski, the protest actions in Belarus might presage of future rallies in Russia. Bugaiski says that the results of the presidential elections in Belarus were fabricated, and the mass protests in the streets of Minsk and other Belorussian cities are exceptionally peaceful. However, the authorities decided to disperse them by strong-arm methods.
In Bugaiski’s opinion if the events of this kind continue they might turn Belarus into a completely uncontrolled state. At the same time, he says that the days of Alexander Lukashenko’s tenure have already been numbered. To Bugaiski’s thinking, in order to make peace in the country, his duties should be temporarily taken over by the government. However, in terms of the upcoming events Bugaiski gives a somewhat offbeat forecast. According to him, the Belarusian establishment is likely to choose a successor for Lukashenko in direct cooperation with Moscow. At the same time, if Lukashenko is really removed from power, the outcome of this kind might be repeated in Russia in the future.
“Russia has not succeeded as a state even to the greater extent than Belarus,” Bugaiski wrote in his article for the American edition of The Hill. “That is why it will be the next. The fate of Belarus awaits it.”
At the same time, Bugaiski urges European and American politicians to focus on Belarus as much as possible and to start preparing for an even more devastating “outbreak of public anger in Russia.”