According to Elena Kozhukhova, analyst of VELES Capital Investment Company, there is a risk of weakening of the Russian national currency, the ruble, due to several factors at the moment.
Among others, according to her, this will be contributed by such factors as renewal of the budget rule and access of residents from friendly states to exchange trading as well as downfall in oil prices due to recession risks. The analyst believes that these factors “will keep” the Russian currency from renewing 2015 peaks.
The price of futures for Brent oil with delivery in October on the London Stock Exchange ICE fell below $94 per barrel. It is noteworthy that this has happened for the first time since February 21, 2022.
Still, some weakening of the ruble is expected in autumn, but it is unlikely that it will weaken significantly, as the high current account and trade balance surplus of Russia will remain, as well as the known currency restrictions. Nevertheless, the factors contributing to the strengthening of the Russian national currency will gradually start to weaken due to the ongoing devaluation of the financial system, reduction in exports and the recovery of imports.
The situation for the ruble may aggravate by December of the current year - February of the next year. That is at the time when the EU restrictions on Russian oil supplies will come into effect. The mid-term weakening of the Russian currency will become noticeable only after the dollar has consolidated above 65 rubles.
Earlier, Mikhail Kogan, head of the analytical research department of the Higher School of Finance Management, expressed the opinion that the ruble should add 5-7% to the real exchange rate.
The ruble will continue to fluctuate close to the level of early August and may even strengthen slightly. Currently, the dollar's range is 49-65 rubles, while the euro’s range is 53-66 rubles.
However, according to Sergey Dubinin, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of VTB Bank and former Chairman of the RF Central Bank, the fluctuations of the ruble against the dollar and the euro will continue until there are considerable changes in the Russian balance of payments, which, however, “will not happen soon.”