According to economist Mikhail Delyagin, the global crisis might be caused by an unstable political and social situation in the U.S. Against the background of the forthcoming presidential election it has been only exacerbated, and it might trigger a significant devaluation of the American dollar.
The misgivings about the looming world economic crisis have long been in the air. In Russia, they are the most obvious. The economy of the country has been already weakened by sanctions, the oil market collapse, unstable national currency and other factors. Moreover, in the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic these misgivings reached a breaking point, resonating with global economic trends. Notably, these trends are related to the decline in production volumes and in trade turnover, which was always considered the token of a yet another global economic crisis.
According to Mikhail Delyagin, a well-known Russian economist and the head of the Institute for Globalization Issues, the crisis that has been long discussed in expert quarters is likely to start very soon and to be quite tough in every sense of the word. However, there is some hope that the threat is over. In addition, according to Delyagin, the world crisis might be caused by an unstable political and social situation in the U.S. At the background of the upcoming presidential elections it has been only exacerbated and might trigger a significant devaluation of the American dollar.
“In the U.S., on the second day after the presidential election, November 4, the current cold war of the elites might stop to be cold. Moreover, it is highly likely that it will not be a war of the elites,” said Delyagin. “Chances are Joe Biden will be helped to run for presidency by the same people who once helped Barack Obama to come into office. In doing so, an already serious crisis was aggravated. Especially as the world has been actively sinking into global depression lately, it is a very intrinsic process where that which is falling should also be pushed.”
However, the most alarming Delyagin's statement is that the peak of the crisis might come very soon, much sooner than most of people and experts expect.
“Chances are we will enter the stage of global crisis in mid-September,” said Delyagin. “Or if we lose our nerves, it might start earlier. It is no coincidence that the second wave of “corona madness” is scheduled for September 20. And then, what happens to the global economy if the U.S., which is considered to be its base, plunges into events resembling the cold war?”
In addition, in Delyagin’s opinion, a slight and gradual weakening of the U.S. dollar against major currencies can be already observed. Moreover, according to the American analysts, there might be depreciation of the dollar against the major currencies by about 30% in the short term.
“If the dollar is devaluated only by one third, it will mean that God really saves the U.S.,” added Delyagin.
Commenting on the Russian economy, he is even less optimistic. According to Delyagin, the crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic dealt a really telling blow to Russia. On this background, he sees the ruble devaluation as the most likely scenario.
“The Russian economy is unlikely to survive after these losses,” Delyagin said. “At present, it is trying to operate somehow, but this isn’t enough. And the devaluation of the ruble remains the only way to help our economy if we don’t develop it. However, the dollar might well fall even more sharply than the ruble.”