Power transfer, the inter-elite struggle for spheres of influence, the succession race, and many other political processes hidden from people have been the subject of robust discussion by political scientists.
And this is logical. The fewer actual facts about a particular event become known, the more space to manoeuvre is there for experts who want to make an assessment and to voice possible scenarios.
All the more so because the situation in Russia is developing in a dynamic way that not everyone, even the most effective political scientist, can follow. For example, the experts' assessments of the recent events related to the detention and arrest of Alexei Navalny, the leader of opposition, the investigation into "Putin’s palace" near Gelendzhik, as well as the recent protests, are remarkably different.
Politician and publicist Igor Skurlatov believes that all of these events easily fit into his basic theory that there is a certain group of people in the Russian government in general and in the Kremlin in particular who are trying to take over the initiative and make Putin leave the presidency.
"The Kremlin's liberals, as well as high-ranking security officials who have joined them, still spare no effort to "softly" remove Putin from power,” said Skurlatov. “To do so, they are using their partner Navalny as a factor of additional pressure on the Russian President.
“This scenario is being opposed by representatives of the Family, the Ozero Cooperative and top-ranking security officials. Putin himself is in doubts at the moment. Apparently, he is simply not ready to quit until he finally loses the ability to make his own decisions. The drama of the Russian President is of a private nature but for the moment, the residents are not interested in Putin himself who has been de-sacralized by the juicy scandal around the palace in Gelendzhik.
It is much more important who and what will happen in Russia after Putin as the so-called "revolution of consciousness" has taken place and there is no way back. This situation might become a serious reason for Vladimir Putin to think over his future, as well as his image in history and how he will be perceived by future generations. This is a tragedy of personality, and we are its witnesses. We live in interesting time."