"By blocking the transit of power, Putin is turning into a threat to his inner circle,” Boris Kagarlitsky said. “Due to this very reason more and more attempts are being made to revive the process of power transfer and to give a boost to it.”
The paradox of the current political situation is that given the real actions of the Kremlin and the legislative initiatives aimed at the "transit of power" expected by experts, a kind of precarious situation occurred in Russia. On the one hand, resetting of Presidential terms to zero which has been pulled together with the amendments to the Constitution, allows the incumbent Russian President to be elected as the country's leader at least twice more. On the other hand, there is a draft law on guarantees for former Russian presidents and numerous insider reports that Vladimir Putin might not only announce his resignation but also that he might leave office before the end of his current term.
In this ambiguous situation, it becomes unclear what the Kremlin's real plans for the presidency are. While some political scientists are going over the names of Putin’s successors and trying to predict the date of his announcement, others are trying to choose between two main scenarios – from a new presidential election to his transition to the State Council along with moving greater part of the presidential powers there.
In this context, a record-breaking number of leaks about the Russian President’s private life of the, including the allegedly serious health issues that are presumably forcing him to leave the presidency before the end of his tenure, are also conspicuous. According to political scientist Boris Kagarlitsky, this fact as well as the fact that the quickly prepared transit of power was replaced with the introduction of amendments on resetting of Presidential terms to zero made by Duma deputy Valentina Tereshkova, might only mean that Vladimir Putin and his entourage in the Kremlin are pursuing different goals since they no longer trust each other. Hence the allegedly new series of data leaks about Putin's personal life.
"Talk about problems with the President’s has been circulating for quite some time,” Kagarlitsky writes in his Telegram channel. “However, it was at the beginning of this year that his health condition, according to these reports, got drastically worse. It is precisely due to this fact the Kremlin suddenly began to fuss with strange, half-baked legislative initiatives in January. Apparently, they were aimed at a transit of power. However, already in February, the scenario was suddenly broken by the speech of Valentina Tereshkova. She called for resetting of the president's term to zero. In doing so, she provided him with life-long powers. Moreover, no one, neither in the Presidential administration nor in the State Duma, was aware of this plan as early as the morning of February 15. That is to say, this decision was clearly a reflection of the opinion of one specific person. Namely, Vladimir Putin himself."
Kagarlitsky also believes that the current situation might indicate that Putin and the Kremlin's elite, as well as his inner circle, have very different views of the future of the country's state power.
“While Putin sees no future for Russia and for himself without being its President, other people in power hold different views,” Boris Kagarlitsky said. “Moreover, it is extremely important for them to make the transit take place and ensure its maximum smoothness. By blocking the transit of power, Putin is turning into a threat to his inner circle. Due to this very reason more and more attempts are being made to revive the process of power transfer in Russia and to give it a boost.”