In the cold phase of the battle for future power, the leaders of Russian security and defense agencies have an obvious advantage over the elite. However, the political expert Valery Solovey believes it is not quite so.
The political situation in Russia cannot be called particularly stable -- there is tension in the air caused by several factors at a time: incidents during the Moscow City Duma elections, various reforms and bills burdening the people, regular disrespectful statements by some deputies regarding the people and an outright lack of sufficient means for comfortable existence experienced by the majority of the country's residents.
However, the tension feels not only among the people, but also in the elite, the famous political expert Valery Solovey said on the air of the radio station Echo of Moscow. He stated that the elite are hotly debating the candidates for the next president of Russia, and there is a silent competition between securocrats and officials.
Medvedev's Candidacy as a Deterring Factor
Solovey said that as a result of the consideration of more than 40 candidates, the Presidential Administration had come to the conclusion that there would be no better candidate for the post of President of Russia in 2024 than Dmitry Medvedev. And it is not connected with the political activity of the Russian Prime Minister.
“Medvedev is the person whom Putin trusts without any doubts. In no case is he to be regarded as a candidate. Many people consider Medvedev's weakness to be his drawback but in this situation, a disadvantage, surprisingly, turns into an advantage,” Solovey said.
He added that the weak Medvedev is the best candidate for the competing elites, too.
“It's not just about the fact that Medvedev is supported by the elites -- it's about him being the most suitable option for them. Medvedev’s weakness, which is viewed as his drawback, is exactly his strength in a critical situation -- the elites have nothing to be afraid of. Any “their” candidate from one of the elite groups will be blocked by other groups. They are looking at each other and thinking: “Is it worth fighting each other? What good will come of this? But if we appoint Medvedev, we’ll hold our own,” Solovey said.
Solovey added that since 2024 the presidential powers will not be the same.
“Since 2024 the presidential powers will not be similar to the current ones. Vladimir Putin will keep his role as the system's demiurge but withdraw into the shadows. And Medvedev will play the role of a frontman,” said Solovey.
Power Structure Against the Elite
In the cold phase of battle for future power, the securocrats have an obvious advantage over the elite. However, it is not quite so, Solovey says.
“The power-wielding organizations have an evident and doubtless advantage at the moment. But they have been using it so outrageously that the elite have no choice other than to form coalitions against them. Most of these elite groups are absolutely unwilling to see any representative of power structures to take over again. They are so fed up with it that they are ready to fight,” said Solovey.
He added that the elite are already trying to slow down the power machine, because they see it as a potential source of serious problems.
“Currently, the elite would prefer to limit the appetite of the power machine to a significant extend. They are confident that the actions of power structures are very likely to result in instability in the country with unpredictable aftermaths,” Solovey concluded.