According to political scientist Dmitry Mikhailichenko, the Russian political system is focused on one person, namely, the President. This fact seriously complicates the probable process of power transit. Mikhailichenko believes that in Russia it is personal arrangement, and not institutions, that play a crucial role.
In the lead-up to the voting on amendments to the Constitution, there is a heated discussion about the forth-coming changes among the Russians.
There is no secret that the amendment on resetting presidential terms to zero causes the biggest debate. The expert community led by well-known political scientists almost daily comes up with scenarios and theories about the plans the authorities have made. Discussions in social networks are even hotter as the most robust political talk shows on federal TV channels.
On the other hand, there is an opinion that the amendment for resetting the presidential terms to zero might not only allow Vladimir Putin to run for presidency in 2024, but also to reduce tensions among the country's political elite. In experts’ opinion, they have begun to swell there recently because of a possible transit of power.
This is the viewpoint of political scientist Dmitry Mikhailichenko. In an interview with Regnum, he said that the political system in Russia is focused on one person, namely, the President. This fact seriously complicates the probable process of power transit. Mikhailichenko believes that in Russia, it is not institutions but personal arrangements that play a crucial role.
“Recently, political scientist Pavel Salin said that, in his opinion, Vladimir Putin is unlikely to participate in the presidential race in 2024,” said Dmitry Mikhailichenko. “It seems to me that this is logical to a certain extent, and even some wisdom might be hidden there.
“I believe that Vladimir Putin might create a foothold for some political move as soon as possible, providing for an easy process of power transfer. This is indirectly confirmed by his recent harsh statement about “an anxious search for a successor.”
One thing is clear. Putin cannot allow himself to be labelled an “outgoing President” or a “lame duck.” The political system presupposes that the keys must be tied in a bundle and handedled by a single person, until the very last moment.
I believe that the Kremlin authorities are going to achieve an intra-elite balance and create a necessary springboard for the transit. Putin is likely to initiate the transfer of power to his own successor, who, in turn, will have to guarantee his personal security. On the other hand, Putin's re-election is also possible. If he fails to make a transit, he might run for a new term. There are quite a lot of reasons for this at the moment.”