“In general, our clients expect two waves of layoffs: one in June and July when the quarantine is lifted, and the second one in September,” said Alena Vladimirskaya.
Many Russian employers are preparing for two waves of layoffs and developing three redundancy plans from the best case scenario to the worst one. At present, an unspoken veto over firing people has been enforced by the government. HR specialist Alena Vladimirskaya, the founder and CEO of the Pruffi recruitment agency said this in an interview with Forbes.
She commented on the situation on the Russian market, saying that it was too early to assess reaction of the business community to the crisis.
“The government has imposed an unspoken veto on layoffs,” said Vladimirskaya. “That is why only companies that have nothing to lose are firing their employees now -- either these companies are almost bankrupt, or they are confident that they will go unpunished for it, so, they can do it with any repercussions.
“There is another question: we see, for example, that the majority of our clients are developing three redundancy plans, which based on the best-case, medium and worst-case scenarios. With the most optimistic one, companies are going to cut down from 3 to 5 percent of their workers. Under medium scenario, from 5 to 15 percent might be fired, and under the worst-case scenario, from 30 to 40 percent.
“In general, our clients expect two waves of layoffs, one in June and July when the quarantine is lifted, and the second wave in September. Why in September? Big companies explain that in the summer, we are going to place many people either on unpaid or partially paid leaves, and people will be happy to accept these offers. Especially in the regions where many residents have dachas, and they can spend that time there. And then the downsizing of the personnel will begin.
To sum it up, it is very early to talk about how the market has responded to the crisis. At present, that doesn’t make any sense.”