“The official forecast for Russia should be made by the Ministry of Economic Development,” said Sergei Guriyev. “But if you visit their website, you will see that no forecasts have been published there recently.”
As the actions of the government are quite controversial, the Russian economy is unlikely to recover earlier than in 2 years’ time, the authoritative economist Sergei Guriyev in a recent interview.
According to him, at present, it is quite difficult to make any predictions, because the situation remains highly uncertain.
“In general, it can be said that the economy is likely to partially or entirely restore to the level of early 2020 roughly by early 2022,” said Sergei Guriev. “These forecasts have been made by various international organizations. The Russian Central Bank’s forecasts go much along these lines, too.
“The official forecast for Russia should be made by the Ministry of Economic Development. But if you visit their website, you will see that no forecasts have been published there recently. The Central Bank has some kind of projections. It has made a relatively realistic assumption that this year's GDP might fall from 4% to 6%. At least, this looks highly likely. I would say that this forecast sounds optimistic, but it is possible.
“If everything goes well, then there is a chance to recover by 2022. This forecast also is consonant with the projections of the International Monetary Fund, which suggest a 5.5% decline this year and a recovery of about the same magnitude next year. However, the situation remains very uncertain, and much depends on the steps by the Russian government. Unfortunately, the Russian authorities have not been taking efficient measures to ensure that the economy will get back on track rapidly.”