Deteriorating Grain Quality may Reduce its Export Volumes

Deteriorating Grain Quality may Reduce its Export Volumes

Photo: https://exp.idk.ru/

This year's grain harvest in the Russian Federation is expected to be significantly higher, 42.6 dt/ha against last year's 31.8 dt/ha, but its losses may be up to 15% of the harvest, the President of the Russian Grain Union (RZS) Arkady Zlochevsky said.

This year's grain harvest in the Russian Federation is expected to be significantly higher, 42.6 dt/ha against last year's 31.8 dt/ha, but its losses may be up to 15% of the harvest, the President of the Russian Grain Union (RZS) Arkady Zlochevsky said.

As he suggests, by the end of the year, grain yields may fall to 36.1 dt/ha. Such a significant drop in yields is primarily due to weather conditions. The fact is that due to heavy and often unprecedented rains in Siberian regions the grain became wet and started to germinate, as a result of which it will significantly lose weight when drying.

According to the latest data, Russia has harvested 56.5 million tons of grain, which is 8 million tons less than the previous forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture. In the future, according to Zlochevsky, it is possible to “reduce the yield” to an average of just over 31 dt/ha compared with 31.8 dt/ha in 2021.

At the moment, the harvesting is taking place with a significant lag from the previous year, and the rise in prices for fertilizers and agricultural machinery also contributes to the decreasing performance of grain yields. Moreover, when the grain is sold, it may not pay off due to high production costs.

It should be noted that many farmers have already expressed their intentions to abandon expensive fertilizers, which will inevitably cause a drop in grain quality. However, food wheat is expected to yield about 60% of the forecast, while last season this figure was 82%. In turn, deteriorating grain quality will reduce the volume of exports, but the cost of wheat will increase. The market has already responded to the situation, with the prices for food and fodder grain diverging by 3,000 rubles ($48.88) per ton.

On August 9, Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev announced that Russia may reduce its plan to sell abroad 50 million tons of grain this year. It should be noted that the agency has already seen the risks of failure to achieve the grain harvest figure of 130 million tons, but they have been looking on the bright side of things so far.

Assessing the current situation, Arkady Zlochevsky said that this season there will be no record harvest of grain, unfortunately. According to his estimates, the current harvest will amount to 123-125 million tons, including 83-84 million tons of wheat. At the same time, the Ministry of Agriculture insists on the figure of 130 million tons by the end of the year.

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