Political scientist Artyom Shraibman says that this scenario of power transit in Belarus is very popular and discussed abroad, but in fact, it's not as simple as it seems.
Transfer of power from Alexander Lukashenko to his sons is quite a difficult task for the incumbent President of Belarus. He will have to prove to the residents and political elites of the country the expediency of transferring power to his sons. Otherwise Lukashenko's eldest son Viktor or someone else is simply unlikely to hold on to the power, and it might carry enormous risks for their family. Artyom Shraibman voiced this opinion on the air of the Echo of Moscow radio.
Alexander Lukashenko will have to make every effort to persuade people and political elites why a member of his family should continue ruling the country, the expert said.
He said that this scenario of power transit in Belarus is very popular and it is being discussed in foreign countries, but in fact, it's not as simple as it seems.
“Some people really believe that Alexander Lukashenko is going to transfer power to his sons. Especially if we take into account the fact that his eldest son is incorporated in the institute of state power. Viktor is the presidential adviser on national security. In other words, Viktor he supervises the Belorussian security, defense and law enforcement agencies.
It is hard to predict how realistic this scenario [of the transfer of power] might be. There is no surprise that this opinion is quite popular abroad, but in fact, it is not so easy to translate it into life in Belarus as it seems. We are not a typical country of Central Asia. The surname of Lukashenko does not add any legitimacy to Viktor’s possible future.
Summing up, it can be said that Alexander Lukashenko will have to spare no effort to convince the people and the political elites why a member of his family should continue to rule the country. Otherwise, Lukashenko's eldest son or someone else is simply unlikely to keep power in their hands, and it might carry enormous risks for their family,” said Shreibman.