BCG Analysts Predict Russia to Lift Quarantine in Late June or Early July

BCG Analysts Predict Russia to Lift Quarantine in Late June or Early July

Photo: https://www.rbc.ru/

Last week, Vladimir Putin announced an extension of the non-working days until April 30. In addition, a requirement for full self-isolation has been introduced for the residents in all regions of the country.

Since the World Health Organization reclassified the coronavirus situation as a pandemic, the world has been changing right in front of our eyes. It is hard to say if the reclassification coincided with a dramatic increase in the number of cases outside of China, the initial epicenter of COVID-19, in several Western countries, or if the WHO experts had any well-grounded predictions for a further course of events.

At all events, the global situation remains chaotic. However, numerous experts are already trying to make predictions about when the situation will return to normal and the people of most major countries will get back to their ordinary life. For example, not so long ago, Michael Levitt, a well-known biophysicist and a winner of the Nobel Prize in chemistry, gave his forecast when it will be over. He claims that the end of the pandemic and associated morbidity should be expected in the very near future. His words stimulated intense interest from the media, his colleagues and the general public in part because it was Levitt who made the most accurate prediction of the end of the COVID-19 epidemic in China. However, he is not the only expert in the world to assess the situation and forecast its further development.

For instance, the American experts and analysts of the authoritative consulting company BCG (Boston Consulting Group) recently announced their forecast of when the pandemic of the novel coronavirus will be over in different countries of the world. According to them, in the vast majority of countries, the outbreak of COVID-19 will reach its peak in May 2020. This fact will enable them to cancel the lockdown measures before mid-summer. No further specifics were provided. However, experts believe that in some countries, quarantine will be abolished in June, while others will lift it only closer to July. It should be noted that, these conclusions have been made on the ground of the conducted research.

Russia To Return to Normal in June or July

It should be noted that this forecast has been modelled on international data provided by various governments, each with varied healthcare systems and freedom of press. Analysts also included data on the varying success rates of managing the of spread of infection via restrictive measures taken by members of the international community.

As for Russia, BCG experts expect the peak in the first week of May 2020. They believe that the Russian authorities will be able to lift the quarantine only in late June or early July. It is worth noting that last week, Vladimir Putin announced the extension of the non-working days through to April 30. In addition, full self-isolation has been introduced for the residents in all regions of the country.

Analysts are confident that in the vast majority of European countries and the United States the peak of the pandemic will occur during late April or in May. However, restrictive quarantine measures in Europe might be lifted by early July. Sweden and Norway may become exceptions in this case and lift their quarantines 1-2 weeks earlier.

South America is expected to be the last to face the peak of the pandemic. According to the BCG, Argentina and Brazil will near the peak in June, so the quarantine there may last until the end of August.The same is true for South Africa.

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